# Input pack — Georgia Macro Bulletin, week of 21–27 September 2026

Gathered 2026-09-27 (Sunday evening, Tbilisi) following Part 1 of
`../01-macro-bulletin.md`. Every figure below was read from the cited release
in this run — nothing is carried over from the 2026-09-21 pack. Each series
is marked `NEW THIS WEEK` or `UNCHANGED since <release date>` against that
pack. "via" marks the one place a secondary source was needed.

## 1. NBG Monetary Policy Committee — 9 September 2026
`UNCHANGED since 09.09.2026` (no MPC meeting this week; next 21 October)
Source: NBG press release "The National Bank of Georgia decided to keep the
monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25 percent", 09.09.2026,
https://nbg.gov.ge/en/media/news/the-national-bank-of-georgia-decided-to-keep-the-monetary-policy-rate-unchanged-at-8-25-2
(re-read 27.09.2026)
- Decision: monetary policy rate kept unchanged at 8.25%.
- Headline inflation August 2026: 5.6%. Drivers named in the release:
  supply-side shocks; rising energy prices amid renewed geopolitical tensions
  in the Middle East; intensified pressure from international food markets;
  pass-through of higher energy costs into production and transportation
  costs.
- Core inflation August: 3.6%; services inflation: 4.4%. NBG reading: the
  shock's "impact on inflation expectations remains moderate", while a
  prolonged shock raises the risk of second-round effects.
- Forecast: average annual inflation around 5.2% in 2026, gradually
  converging to the 3% target over the medium term.
- Growth cited: 8.0% in July 2026 (preliminary), 7.9% average over the first
  seven months.
- Guidance: should prolonged supply-side shocks lift inflation expectations
  and amplify second-round effects, the MPC "will continue to increase the
  monetary policy rate moderately"; once the inflationary shock dissipates,
  the NBG will gradually begin to normalize.
- Next MPC meeting: 21 October 2026.

## 2. Consumer prices — August 2026
`UNCHANGED since 03.09.2026` (September CPI not yet published)
Source: Geostat PX-Web API, National CPI, "Consumer Price Indices (Same month
of the previous year=100)", Region=Georgia (code 0), Year=2026 (code 22),
months VII, VIII and IX (codes 6, 7, 8), all 13 groups; and "Core Inflation in
Georgia (Percentage change compared to the same month of the previous year)",
Indicator codes 0 and 1, Year 2026 (code 16), months VI–IX. Queried
27.09.2026, explicit period codes, no `top` filter.
- API root: https://pc-axis.geostat.ge/PXWeb/api/v1/en/Database/Price%20Statistics/CPI/National%20Consumer%20Price%20Index/
- Underlying release: Geostat, "Inflation Rate in Georgia, August 2026",
  03.09.2026, https://www.geostat.ge/en/single-news/3840
- September 2026 returns `..` in every group: not yet published.

| Group | Aug 2026 YoY | Jul 2026 YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Total | +5.6% | +5.5% |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | +5.0% | +4.9% |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | +5.5% | +5.6% |
| Clothing and footwear | +0.6% | +1.1% |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | +8.5% | +8.3% |
| Furnishings, household equipment | −1.8% | −2.4% |
| Health | +5.2% | +4.7% |
| Transport | +15.2% | +14.2% |
| Communication | −7.5% | −6.3% |
| Recreation and culture | +1.5% | +1.0% |
| Education | +2.4% | +2.4% |
| Restaurants and hotels | +6.8% | +7.9% |
| Miscellaneous goods and services | +7.1% | +7.6% |

- Core inflation (Geostat series "Core Inflation"): 3.8% in August, 3.8% in
  July. Core inflation without tobacco: 3.6% in August, 3.5% in July — this
  is the series the NBG quotes as "core".

## 3. GDP — Q2 2026 (preliminary)
`UNCHANGED since 18.09.2026`
Source: Geostat, "Gross Domestic Product of Georgia — II Quarter, 2026
(Preliminary)", 18.09.2026,
https://geostat.ge/media/82779/Gross-Domestic-Product-of-Georgia---II-Quarter%2C-2026.pdf
(downloaded and read 27.09.2026); cross-checked against PX-Web
`National Accounts/.../06_Real_Growth.px`, Activity code 23 "(=) GDP at market
prices", Period codes 72, 73, 75, 76.
- Real GDP +6.9% YoY in Q2 2026 (Q2 2025: +7.4%). Q1 2026: +9.0% (PX-Web:
  109.0). Q3 2025: +6.4%, Q4 2025: +6.7%.
- Nominal GDP Q2 2026: GEL 28,147.0 mn (Q2 2025: GEL 25,577.1 mn); USD
  10,512.6 mn. GDP per capita GEL 7,141.9 (USD 2,667.4). GDP deflator +3.0%
  (Q2 2025: +4.2%).
- Positive contributors named by Geostat: information and communication
  +16.6%, wholesale and retail trade +8.0%, transportation and storage
  +19.8%, arts, entertainment and recreation +17.4%, manufacturing +7.3%,
  human health and social work +15.0%.
- Largest negative contributors: construction −4.8%, agriculture, forestry
  and fishing −3.5%.
- Largest shares of GDP: trade 14.9%, real estate activities 9.1%,
  manufacturing 8.9%, information and communication 7.6%.
- Revision: "Revised data will be published by November 13, 2026."
- Monthly rapid estimate: July 2026 +8.0%, January–July average +7.9% (as
  cited in the NBG release above; Geostat's own August rapid estimate was not
  published as of 27.09.2026).

## 4. External trade — January–August 2026 (preliminary)
`UNCHANGED since 21.09.2026` (published on the Monday of this week; it was in
the 2026-09-21 pack and every figure re-read here is identical. Geostat has
since re-uploaded the file under a new media id — 82971 instead of 82815 —
with no change to the figures.)
Source: Geostat, "External Merchandise Trade of Georgia — January–August 2026
(Preliminary)", 21.09.2026,
https://geostat.ge/media/82971/External-Merchandise-Trade-of-Georgia---January-August-2026.pdf
- Turnover USD 17,926.9 mn, +8.4% YoY. Exports USD 5,422.5 mn, +22.1%.
  Imports USD 12,504.4 mn, +3.4%. Balance −USD 7,081.8 mn, 39.5% of turnover.
- August 2026 alone: exports USD 752.4 mn (+24.7% YoY), imports USD 1,562.2 mn
  (+4.3% YoY). Balance −USD 809.9 mn (derived: 752.4 − 1,562.2).
- July 2026 for context: exports USD 793.9 mn (+30.0%), imports USD 1,745.5 mn
  (+8.5%).
- Top export partners: Kyrgyzstan USD 577.6 mn (10.7% share, −38.8%), China
  USD 543.7 mn (10.0%, +177.3%), Russia USD 500.7 mn (9.2%, +4.1%). Top ten
  partners = 68.8% of exports.
- Top import partners: Türkiye USD 1,918.6 mn (15.3%, +7.0%), Russia USD
  1,531.8 mn (12.3%, +24.9%), USA USD 1,510.5 mn (12.1%, −23.0%), China USD
  1,499.1 mn (12.0%, +22.1%). Top ten partners = 70.2% of imports.
- Top export commodities: motor cars USD 1,347.7 mn (24.9% of exports,
  −22.0%); petroleum and petroleum oils USD 688.9 mn (12.7%, from USD 59.0 mn
  a year earlier); precious metal ores and concentrates USD 403.1 mn (7.4%).
- Top import commodities: motor cars USD 2,364.3 mn (18.9% of imports,
  −12.5%); petroleum and petroleum oils USD 1,164.7 mn (9.3%, +37.4%).
- Export shares by country group: CIS 51.3%, EU 10.0%, other countries 38.7%.

## 5. Domestic exports — January–August 2026 (preliminary)
`NEW THIS WEEK` (released 21.09.2026; not in the 2026-09-21 pack)
Source: Geostat, "The Domestic Exports — January–August 2026 (Preliminary)",
21.09.2026,
https://geostat.ge/media/82820/The-domestic-exports-in-January-August-2026.pdf
- Domestic exports (exports excluding re-exports) USD 3,286.6 mn, +63.5% YoY,
  60.6% of total exports.
- August 2026 alone: USD 432.3 mn, +60.0% YoY. July 2026: USD 462.5 mn,
  +72.5%.
- Top domestic export items: petroleum and petroleum oils USD 649.1 mn (19.8%
  of domestic exports); precious metal ores and concentrates USD 403.1 mn
  (12.3%); ferro-alloys USD 219.0 mn (6.7%).
- Top domestic export partners: China USD 529.1 mn (16.1% share, +197.5%),
  Russia USD 468.3 mn (14.2%, +4.0%), Türkiye USD 297.3 mn (9.0%, +60.2%).
  Top ten partners = 65.0% of domestic exports.

## 6. Producer, export and import prices — August 2026
`NEW THIS WEEK` (released 21.09.2026; not in the 2026-09-21 pack)
Sources: Geostat, "Producer Price Index for Industrial Products in Georgia —
August 2026", 21.09.2026,
https://geostat.ge/media/82806/Producer-Price-Index-for-Industrial-Products-in-Georgia.pdf ;
"Export Price Index in Georgia — August 2026", 21.09.2026,
https://geostat.ge/media/82808/Export-Price-Index-in-Georgia.pdf ;
"Import Price Index in Georgia — August 2026", 21.09.2026,
https://geostat.ge/media/82809/Import-Price-Index-in-Georgia.pdf
- PPI: +0.9% MoM, +5.8% YoY. Annual drivers: mining and quarrying +20.1%
  (contribution 1.34 pp, metal ores +22.9%); manufactured products +5.1%
  (4.02 pp, food products +5.7%, basic metals +10.1%); electricity, gas, steam
  and air conditioning +2.6% (0.28 pp); water supply and waste services +6.3%
  (0.2 pp). Monthly: mining +4.6%, manufactured products −0.2%, electricity,
  gas and steam +6.8%.
- Export price index (XPI): +0.3% MoM, +7.1% YoY. Mining and quarrying +22.5%
  (3.18 pp), manufactured products +4.8% (4.04 pp, basic metals +11.3%,
  chemicals +14.2%); electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning −36.3%.
- Import price index (MPI): +3.0% MoM, +6.0% YoY (total contribution to the
  annual change 5.98 pp). Manufactured products +5.6%
  (5.41 pp), of which coke and refined petroleum products +61.7% (3.57 pp) and
  computer, electronic and optical products +11.4% (0.68 pp); mining and
  quarrying +7.4%.

## 7. Money transfers — August 2026
`UNCHANGED since 15.09.2026` (September data due mid-October)
Source: NBG interactive press release "Money Transfers in August", 15.09.2026
(figures are not in the release text — the release points to the interactive
statistics section); figures via Civil.ge, "EU, U.S. Remain Top Sources of
Money Transfers in August as Russia Drops to 11th Place", 15.09.2026,
https://civil.ge/archives/751305 (re-read 27.09.2026)
- Total USD 295.17 mn, +8.2% YoY.
- EU and USA together 72.5% of inflows (USD 214.07 mn). EU member countries
  alone USD 149.93 mn, +3.9% YoY, 50.8% of the total.
- By country: USA USD 64.14 mn (21.7%), Italy USD 55.22 mn (18.7%), Germany
  USD 31.31 mn (10.6%), Greece USD 28.24 mn (9.5%), Israel USD 27.92 mn
  (9.4%).
- Russia 11th-largest source: USD 5.07 mn, −87.7% YoY, 1.7% of the total
  (USD 42.02 mn in July, USD 51.42 mn in June).

## 8. International reserves — end-August 2026
`UNCHANGED since 07.09.2026` (September data due 7 October)
Source: NBG press release "As of August 2026, Georgia's Gross International
Reserves Reach an All-Time High of USD 8.14 Billion", 07.09.2026,
https://nbg.gov.ge/en/media/news/as-of-august-2026-georgia-s-gross-international-reserves-reach-an-all-time-high-of-usd-8
(re-read 27.09.2026)
- Gross international reserves USD 8.14 bn, +56.4% YoY, +USD 613 mn MoM.
- 128.2% of the IMF ARA adequacy metric (threshold 100%).
- Net FX purchases USD 2,566.6 mn between January and July 2026.
- Monetary gold USD 1,149.2 mn, +USD 135 mn MoM, 14.1% of gross reserves; the
  NBG bought an additional USD 100 mn of monetary gold in June 2026.
- Next gross reserves release: 7 October 2026.

## 9. Exchange rate — 26 September 2026
`NEW THIS WEEK`
Source: NBG official rates JSON,
https://nbg.gov.ge/gw/api/ct/monetarypolicy/currencies/en/json, fetched
27.09.2026; rate date (validFrom) 2026-09-26, i.e. 26.09.2026.
- USD/GEL 2.6080, change on the day −0.0138.
- EUR/GEL 2.9721, change on the day −0.0086.
- (Quantity = 1 for both, checked in the `quantity` field.)

## 10. Earnings — Q2 2026
`UNCHANGED since 15.09.2026`
Source: Geostat, "Average Monthly Nominal Earnings of Employees (II Quarter,
2026)", 15.09.2026,
https://geostat.ge/media/82731/Average-Monthly-Nominal-Earnings-of-Employees---%28II-Quarter%2C-2026%29.pdf
(re-read 27.09.2026)
- Average monthly nominal earnings GEL 2,389.3, +8.0% YoY (+GEL 177.3).
- Highest-paying activities: information and communication GEL 4,400.4
  (+5.4%); financial and insurance activities GEL 4,074.1 (+9.2%).
- Business sector GEL 2,471.5, +6.6% (+GEL 153.8).
- Women GEL 1,927.0 (+GEL 157.5, +8.9%); men GEL 2,856.4 (+GEL 200.5, +7.6%).

## Not gathered this week
- **Bank loans and deposits, August 2026 — NOT GATHERED.** The NBG published
  "Current Tendencies of Banks Loan Portfolio and Deposits in August" on
  25.09.2026
  (https://nbg.gov.ge/en/media/news/current-tendencies-of-banks-loan-portfolio-and-deposits-in-august),
  but the release text carries no figures: it links to interactive dashboards
  in the statistics section (https://nbg.gov.ge/en/page/loans,
  https://nbg.gov.ge/en/page/deposits), which return no figures to a plain
  fetch and offer no data file. This is the known limit the prompt names.
- **Net FX purchases for August 2026 — NOT GATHERED.** The 07.09.2026 reserves
  release states the August figure would be published on 25 September; no
  public NBG press release carrying it appeared in the news list up to
  27.09.2026, and the series sits in the interactive statistics section. The
  January–July cumulative figure above is the latest public one.
- **Regional earnings (Tbilisi average) — NOT GATHERED.** The figure is only
  in a chart image in the earnings PDF, not in its text.
- **September CPI, August rapid GDP estimate — not yet released** (see the
  calendar below).

## 11. Calendar (from the releases above)
- ~30 September 2026 — Geostat rapid estimate of economic growth, August
  (July's came on 31.08.2026)
- ~2–3 October 2026 — Geostat inflation release, September (August's came on
  03.09.2026)
- 7 October 2026 — NBG gross international reserves, September (date stated in
  the 07.09.2026 release)
- 21 October 2026 — NBG Monetary Policy Committee (date stated in the
  09.09.2026 release)
- by 13 November 2026 — Geostat GDP revision, 2025 quarters plus Q1–Q2 2026
  (date stated in the 18.09.2026 release)

## Gather record
- 66 HTTP requests, including retries and 12 failed or rejected ones (four
  transport resets; two 500s on guessed NBG paths, not retried; six PXWeb
  `json-stat2` requests that this PXWeb build answers with 404 — see below).
- PXWeb note for the next run: this installation does **not** support
  `"format":"json-stat2"` — it answers any such POST with an IIS-level
  "404 File or directory not found", which looks like a bad URL and is not.
  Use `"format":"json"` (columns/data) or `"px"`. The metadata GET carries no
  `updated` field either, so a table's refresh date has to come from the
  matching Geostat release.