# Prompt 01 — Georgia Weekly Macro Bulletin Report type 1 in `../reports.md`: the public-data macro bulletin published in some form by Galt & Taggart (Weekly Market Watch), TBC Capital (Macro Update), ISET (Macroeconomic Review) and PMC Research Center (Macro Overview). Every input is a free official release — nothing here depends on a paid feed or a bank's internal data. Worked example: `examples/2026-09-21-macro-bulletin.md` (output) built from `examples/2026-09-21-macro-bulletin-inputs.md` (the input pack), both produced by following this file on 2026-09-21. ## How to run it **Option A — model with browsing / code execution.** Give the model Part 1 and Part 2 together. It gathers the inputs itself, then writes. **Option B — model without tools.** Gather the inputs yourself using Part 1 (20–30 minutes by hand; the example input pack shows the shape), paste the pack under Part 2, and run. Output quality is the same; only the gathering step differs. This is the main "AI models' tool-use differs" caveat. Either way, the output should be reproducible: two people running it in the same week should get the same numbers and the same section structure, with only phrasing differing. --- ## Part 1 — Gather inputs (do this before writing anything) Collect the following, most recent release of each, and record the release date, the URL, and the exact figures. Mark anything preliminary. 1. **NBG Monetary Policy Committee decision** — the latest press release titled "The National Bank of Georgia decided to … the monetary policy rate …" at https://nbg.gov.ge/en/media/news (also listed under Monetary Policy → Committee Decisions). Record: date, rate, direction (kept/raised/cut), headline inflation cited, core and services inflation cited, growth figures cited, the inflation forecast and target, the conditional forward guidance (what would make them raise / when they would normalize), and the next meeting date. 2. **Consumer prices** — Geostat PX-Web API, National CPI, table "Consumer Price Indices (Same month of the previous year=100) by Region, Groups, Year and month". Query Region=Georgia (code 0), the current year, the latest two months, all Groups. Convert index−100 to a percentage. Also the core-inflation table (same folder) — note that Geostat publishes two core series; the NBG's "core inflation" figure corresponds to *core inflation without tobacco*. State which one you quote. - API root: `https://pc-axis.geostat.ge/PXWeb/api/v1/en/Database/` - Folder: `Price Statistics/CPI/National Consumer Price Index/` - GET the table URL for metadata (variable codes), POST a JSON query for data. The response has a UTF-8 BOM. Never use the `top` filter for periods — it returns positional keys and mis-orders; always select explicit period codes. 3. **GDP** — the latest Geostat quarterly GDP release (news list at https://www.geostat.ge/en/news, PDF linked from the item page) and/or the latest "Rapid Estimates of Economic Growth" monthly release. Record: real growth YoY, nominal level, deflator, top positive and negative sector contributions, and the revision date. Cross-check the quarterly rate against PX-Web table `National Accounts/System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA 2008)/Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/06_Real_Growth.px` (Activity = "GDP at market prices"). 4. **External trade** — the latest Geostat "External Merchandise Trade of Georgia — January–" PDF. Record: turnover, exports, imports, balance and their YoY changes for the cumulative period; the latest single month's exports/imports and YoY; top three export and import partners with values; top three export commodities with shares; EU and CIS shares of exports. 5. **Money transfers (remittances)** — NBG publishes a monthly interactive press release ("Money Transfers in ") whose figures live in the statistics section rather than in the release text. Record total, YoY change, and the top source regions. If the interactive data cannot be read, take the figures from a reputable outlet quoting the NBG release (e.g. civil.ge) and say so in the source list. 6. **International reserves** — the latest NBG press release on gross international reserves (monthly, around the 7th). Record level, MoM and YoY change, ARA-metric coverage, cumulative net FX purchases, gold share, and the next publication date. 7. **Exchange rate** — NBG official rates JSON: `https://nbg.gov.ge/gw/api/ct/monetarypolicy/currencies/en/json`. Record the rate date, USD and EUR rates and their daily change. (Some currencies are quoted per 100 units — check the `quantity` field before quoting anything beyond USD/EUR.) 8. **Optional, when released that week:** Geostat quarterly earnings, FDI, PPI, tourism; NBG loans/deposits ("Current Tendencies of Banks Loan Portfolio and Deposits", interactive). Include only if you have the actual figures. 9. **Calendar** — from the releases above, list the next known dates (next MPC meeting, next reserves release, next CPI, GDP revision). Rules for gathering: primary source first (NBG, Geostat); a secondary source only when the primary is unreadable, and flagged as such. Never carry a number from memory or from a previous week. If a release is not out yet, say the series is unchanged since the last release and give that date — do not estimate. --- ## Part 2 — Write the bulletin ``` You are the research desk of a Georgian bank or think tank writing the weekly macro bulletin for professional readers (investors, corporates, policy staff). You will be given an INPUT PACK of official figures with their sources. Use only figures from the input pack. Do not add any number, forecast or quote that is not in the pack. Do not round away precision the source gives (5.6%, not "around 6%"). Write the bulletin with exactly these sections, in this order, dropping a section only if the pack has no data for it: TITLE: "Georgia Macro Bulletin — week of to , " KEY TAKEAWAYS — 5 to 7 bullets, one line each, each carrying a number. Order by importance for a reader deciding something this week (policy rate and inflation first, then growth, external sector, reserves/FX). 1. MONETARY POLICY — One paragraph, 4–6 sentences: date and decision; the inflation reading the decision cites and its stated drivers, naming 2–3 specific causes; one underlying measure (core, services) as a contrast with a short interpretive clause taken from the release's own reading; the forecast and target; the conditional guidance (what triggers a hike, when normalization starts); the next meeting date as a standalone final sentence. 2. INFLATION — One paragraph plus a compact table. Headline YoY for the latest month and the month before; the three largest positive and the largest negative group contributions by name with their YoY rates; core inflation with the series named. Table columns: Group | YoY latest month | YoY previous month. 3. GROWTH — One paragraph: latest quarterly real GDP YoY with the previous quarter for context, nominal level, deflator; the monthly rapid estimate if newer; the largest positive and negative sectors by name; the revision date. Say "preliminary" where the source does. 4. EXTERNAL TRADE — One paragraph plus a two-line table. Cumulative period turnover/exports/imports/balance with YoY; the latest single month; top three export partners and top three import partners with values; the top export commodity and the fastest-growing one. Table: Exports | Imports | Balance, for cumulative and for the latest month. 5. REMITTANCES AND RESERVES — One paragraph: money transfers level and YoY with the main source regions; gross reserves level, MoM and YoY, ARA coverage, net FX purchases to date, gold share; next data date. 6. CURRENCY — Two sentences: official USD and EUR rates for the stated date with the daily change; no commentary on direction unless the input pack contains a policy statement about it. 7. LABOUR / OTHER (only when a quarterly earnings, FDI, tourism or banking release fell in the week) — One paragraph with the headline figure and the two most notable sub-figures. 8. CALENDAR — bullet list of the next known release/meeting dates from the pack. 9. SOURCES — every release used, as "Institution — title — date — URL". Mark any figure taken from a secondary source with the outlet name. Register: dense, institutional, no hedging filler ("it is worth noting that"), no first-person opinion, no adjectives that are not backed by a number in the same sentence. Every sentence carries a figure, a named cause, or a date. Use "YoY" and "MoM" after first defining them. Use the source's own period labels (Q2 2026, January–August 2026, August 2026). Where two official series differ (e.g. two core-inflation measures), name both rather than picking one silently. Before finishing, re-read every number in your draft against the input pack and fix any mismatch. Then output the bulletin only. ``` --- ## Known limits (state these when publishing) - NBG loans/deposits and money-transfer breakdowns are interactive-only on nbg.gov.ge; a text-only or headless pipeline may need a secondary source for them. The example marks exactly where that happened. - Geostat PDFs are linked from `geostat.ge/en/single-news/` pages, which are JS-rendered; a plain fetch returns navigation only. The PDF itself is at `geostat.ge/media//.pdf` and downloads directly. - Reproducibility is at the level of numbers and structure. Phrasing will differ between models; that is expected and fine. - The bulletin is a synthesis of official releases. It deliberately contains no house forecast — that is the one thing the bank desks add that this prompt does not reproduce, and it should not pretend to.